BRAZIL ECONOMIC MONITOR - JUNE 2015
MONITOR ECONÔMICO BRASIL - JUNHO 2015
Abaixo seguem os principais indicadores econômicos brasileiros, divulgados mensalmente em nosso blog. Boa Análise!!!
World
|
EUR / USD
|
GBP / USD
|
||||
June - Average Value
|
1,11
|
1,57
|
||||
Last Month Value
|
1,10
|
+1,3% ↗
|
1,53
|
+2,7% ↗
|
||
Average/Evol. Last 6 Months
|
1,11
|
-1,3% ↘
|
1,53
|
+4,3% ↗
|
||
Market Expectation 2015
|
1,19
|
1,55
|
||||
Brazil
|
USD / BRL
|
EUR / BRL
|
GBP / BRL
|
||||||
June - Average Value
|
3,10
|
3,46
|
4,87
|
||||||
Last Month Value
|
3,18
|
-2,4% ↘
|
3,49
|
-1,1% ↘
|
4,86
|
+0,3% ↗
|
|||
Average/Evol. Last 6
Months
|
3,00
|
+16%
↗
|
3,33
|
+14%
↗
|
4,59
|
+21%
↗
|
|||
Market Expectation 2015
|
3,20
|
3,45
|
4,80
|
||||||
The
accumulated IPCA for the period 2015 is the highest since December 2003. The
biggest impact in the index was the line Personal
Expenses (+1,63%), with strong influence of chance-game/gamble and household
employment. The second group with big
increase in prices was the Health and People Care (+0,91%). The group was
influenced by the prices of medicines. Highlight for the Habitation (+0,86%), due the increase of cleaning articles and
condominium.
Brazil
|
IPCA
|
INPC
|
IPC-M
|
|||
June - Average Value
|
0,79%
|
0,77%
|
0,83%
|
|||
Last Month Value
|
0,74%
|
0,99%
|
0,68%
|
|||
Accumulated Last 12
Months
|
8,89%
|
9,31%
|
8,84%
|
|||
Year Expectation
|
8,46%
|
8,13%
|
8,20%
|
3 – Producer Price Index - Processing Industries
(IPP)
Growing series since June 2014, the month of May stood out the passenger vehicle production increases due to introduction vehicles model year 2016 and exchange rate adjustments on parts, especially engines.
General
Industry
|
Automotive
Industry
|
|||
May - Average Value
|
0,15%
|
0,81%
|
||
Last Month Value
|
0,34%
|
0,08%
|
||
Accumulated Last 12
Months
|
6,10%
|
8,61%
|
4 – SELIC Brazil Tax Rate
Because of
the economic situation of the market and the strong evolution of national
inflation, the government increased in May 0.5 percentage points over the Selic
rate in order to reduce consumption in the domestic market.
SELIC
|
Market Expectation End of
Year
|
|||
June - Value
|
13,75%
|
13,25%
|
||
Last Month Value
|
13,25%
|
4 – Oil (Petroleum) WTI (West Texas
Intermediate) and Brent
The barrel of oil prices has maintained an upward bias supported by signs that the sector's investment cuts June contain excess supply.
The high commodity was also supported by the growth of gross domestic product of Germany, which exceeded expectations, as well as plans for a meeting between Greek authorities and creditors.
USD / Barrel
|
BRENT
|
WTI
|
||||
June - Average Value
|
64,14
|
59,47
|
||||
Last month value
|
66,61
|
-3,7% ↘
|
60,60
|
-1,9% ↘
|
||
Average of the Last 6
Months
|
63,01
|
+14% ↗
|
56,65
|
+16% ↗
|
||
Market Expectation 2015
|
59,00
|
53,00
|
||||
5 – Electricity
R$ / KWh
|
AMPLA RJ
|
LIGHT RJ
|
BRASIL
|
||||||
June - Average Value
|
0,70
|
0,63
|
0,54
|
||||||
Last month
value
|
0,70
|
0% -
|
0,63
|
0% -
|
0,54
|
0% -
|
|||
Average of
the Last 6 Months
|
0,62
|
+52% ↗
|
0,59
|
+33% ↗
|
0,51
|
+43% ↗
|
|||
Market Expectation 2015
|
0,46
|
||||||||
Market Expectation 2016
|
0,49
|
||||||||
6 – Industrial Natural Gas
R$ / K m3
|
COMGAS SP
|
CEG RJ
|
Brazil
Average
|
|||||
June - Average Value 2015
|
1.521
|
1.252
|
1.420
|
|||||
Last Value
|
1.460
|
4,2% ↗
|
1.176
|
6,4% ↗
|
||||
1 – Labor Costs
Source: FIPE (government site - salarios.org.br).
General Industry Average. February data only available for adjustment.
Information: complete hour rates, including
salary, direct and indirect charges, without taxes – first trimester 2015. · Last official refresh: 02/2015.
Month
|
Average Increase
|
INPC
|
Real Average Increase
|
fev/14
|
7,1%
|
5,4%
|
1,7%
|
jan/15
|
7,6%
|
7,1%
|
0,5%
|
fev/15
|
7,8%
|
7,7%
|
0,1%
|
2 – Civil Construction Costs
The cost of
construction had accelerated in June yet due to strong labor impacts (+ 3.6% in
the month) agreed between unions and construction companies.
Brazil
|
INCC - FGV
|
|
June - Average Value
|
1,84%
|
|
Last Month Value
|
0,95%
|
|
Accumulated Last 12
Months
|
6,97%
|
|
Last 12 Months
Accumulated
|
5,74%
|
SINAPI and
CBIC
R$ / m2
|
Brazil
|
Rio de Janeiro
|
||||||||
SINAPI
|
CBIC
|
SINAPI
|
CBIC
|
|||||||
June Average
Value
|
942
|
1.181
|
1.089
|
1.288
|
||||||
Last month
value
|
935
|
0,7% ↗
|
1.166
|
1,3% ↗
|
1.085
|
0,4% ↗
|
1.286
|
0,2% ↗
|
||
Average Last
12 Months
|
915
|
5,6% ↗
|
1.154
|
3,8% ↗
|
1.050
|
5,2% ↗
|
1.180
|
6,5% ↗
|
||
3 – Transport
INCTF - National Index Load
Fractional Transport costs measures the evolution of all the costs of
breakbulk, including transfer, collection and distribution, administration
costs and terminals.
INCT-L | National Index of
Cargo Transport Cost Capacity: measures the evolution of all the costs of a
full charge, including transfer, administration, risk management and value for
money.
R$ / ton
|
INCT-F
|
INCT-L
|
||||||||
400 Km
|
800 Km
|
400 Km
|
800 Km
|
|||||||
June - Average Value
|
1.017
|
1.298
|
105
|
165
|
||||||
Last month value
|
1.009
|
+0,8% ↗
|
1.287
|
0,8% ↗
|
104
|
+0,3% ↗
|
165
|
+0,3% ↗
|
||
Average of the Last 12
Months
|
961
|
+9,8% ↗
|
1.227
|
9,6% ↗
|
101
|
+7,1% ↗
|
159
|
+7,4% ↗
|
||
